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    View: The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri and geopolitical implications

    Synopsis

    The successful targeting of al-Zawahiri, once again demonstrates Pakistan’s murky strategy of running with the hares and hunting with the hounds. Irrespective of whether the US used Qatar or Pakistan as a base for this operation, the drone must have used Pakistani airspace. If that is so, Pakistan must have been aware of the movement of drones, which validates the assumption that Islamabad was complicit in this mission.

    ​​The drone strike exhibited that the US retains an efficient ‘Over the Horizon Counter Terrorism (OTH-CT)’ task force under Operation Enduring Sentinel and can engage targets at will in Afghanistan.Agencies
    The drone strike exhibited that the US retains an efficient ‘Over the Horizon Counter Terrorism (OTH-CT)’ task force under Operation Enduring Sentinel and can engage targets at will in Afghanistan.
    Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of the terrorist organisation Al-Qaeda, was killed in a US drone attack on July 31, 2022. Along with Osama Bin Laden, he was one of the principal conspirators behind many terrorist attacks on American targets, including the dastardly September 11, 2001 attack.

    The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri happened almost a year after the United States (US) withdrawal from Afghanistan and the consequent takeover of the country by the Taliban. The killing of al-Zawahiri demonstrates that, even after two decades of the 9/11 attacks, Washington continues to “relentlessly” pursue its perpetrators. It appears that the operation was conducted with considerable precision using two Hellfire R9X missiles, and there were no civilian casualties. The successful strikes point to the continued US ability to act on intelligence and project power in the region.
    The drone strike exhibited that the US retains an efficient ‘Over the Horizon Counter Terrorism (OTH-CT)’ task force under Operation Enduring Sentinel and can engage targets at will in Afghanistan. The successful operation has implications for US domestic politics. After the botched-up US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, President Biden now has a positive story regarding his Afghanistan policy. President Biden’s ratings (at a record low of 36% in the last week of July) may receive an uptick before the mid-term elections (scheduled for November 8). Osama Bin Laden was killed in May 2011 during the tenure of President Obama. Now, the second most important leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed during Biden’s presidency.

    Biden’s supporters may point out that the two most significant anti-terrorist success stories pertaining to 9/11 were operationalised by US Presidents belonging to the Democratic Party. With high inflation and related economic challenges, such a narrative will help President Biden to position himself as a strong leader in the short term. The successful US drone strike will have implications for the Taliban as well. In the past year, the Taliban has enforced governance in Afghanistan based on a regressive interpretation of religious doctrines.

    Further, the Taliban has released many operatives, belonging to Al- Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Haqqani Network and others, from prison. It is well known that many in the Taliban, specifically the Haqqani network, have cordial relations with Al-Qaeda. The fact that al-Zawahiri was comfortably stationed in Kabul along with his family members indicates that he was confident about the protection that the Taliban would provide. Such confidence is not surprising given that the Taliban has a long history of providing refuge to the Al-Qaeda leaders.

    Now, the successful attack on al-Zawahiri will raise suspicion if some elements of the Taliban have tipped off the US. Such suspicions will further amplify the discontent among the hard-line elements of the Taliban. There is also a perception that members who actively pursue the Salafist ideology have been neglected by the Taliban, prompting many of them to move closer to the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).

    These dissensions will make it even more difficult for the Taliban to consolidate its governance in the country. All these developments indicate that the Taliban’s capacity to implement the promise of not harbouring international terrorists is actually very limited. As a consequence, the Taliban’s ambitions to gain international recognition as a legitimate and responsible government may receive a setback.

    The successful targeting of al-Zawahiri, once again demonstrates Pakistan’s murky strategy of running with the hares and hunting with the hounds. Irrespective of whether the US used Qatar or Pakistan as a base for this operation, the drone must have used Pakistani airspace. If that is so, Pakistan must have been aware of the movement of drones, which validates the assumption that Islamabad was complicit in this mission.

    It appears that Islamabad has analysed that the blowback it may receive for its support to the US operation will be limited. While it is true that Al-Qaeda has demonstrated some resurgence in southern Yemen, ageing al-Zawahiri was more a spiritual/ideological head and reportedly not in charge of operations.

    Therefore, Pakistan may have calculated that handing over al-Zawahiri to the US may not undermine the interests of the other Al-Qaeda leaders. After the recent development, Pakistan may seek to convince the Taliban that they may receive much-needed relief material and financial support from the US and the United Nations (UN) following the recent earthquake, in June this year which killed over 1,100 people. If Pakistan allowed its airspace to be used or provided required intel, then Islamabad would once again position itself as an indispensable partner to the US in counter-terrorism operations. Islamabad will expect the US to reciprocate by nudging various international organisations to provide greater financial assistance to Pakistan. After all, the loans from China and Saudi Arabia aren’t coming cheap, and Pakistan needs diversified international assistance, including from the EU, to overcome its economic crisis.

    The continuation of the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) is critical for Pakistan to have relatively easy access to European markets. Therefore, considerable international economic assistance and preferential trade arrangements will come as a relief to the civilian as well as the military leadership in Pakistan, as they seek to contain the popularity of ousted former premier Imran Khan. The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri is undoubtedly a big success for the US. Nonetheless, the US will have to seriously think about its approach to the Af-Pak region. Osama Bin Laden was located in Abbottabad, close to a Pakistan military base.

    Now, al-Zawahiri was targeted in Kabul, and he was probably under the protection of the Taliban, which received considerable support from Pakistan. Given the haven that these high-profile terrorists received for a decade in the Af-Pak region, the assumption that Pakistan will deliver on its promise of combatting terrorism requires greater interrogation. Moreover, the Pakistan army does not have the necessary ideological commitment to take on the myriad terrorist organisations in the Af-Pak region, considering it is still negotiating with the TTP, with Sirajuddin Haqqani as the mediator. The elimination of the Al Qaeda leader will not dramatically improve the security situation in India’s immediate neighbourhood.

    It should be noted that for over a year now, the regressive ideological frameworks that ruled Afghanistan before 9/11 are back in control of Afghanistan. US President Biden’s strategy seems to be focused on eliminating people who may carry out terrorist actions. However, in the past year, the US administration has not articulated a robust strategy to contain the spread of regressive radical Islamic ideology that spawns various terrorist organisations and lone wolf terrorists. It is important to recognise that the fight against terrorism is not a series of operational engagements but, at its core, remains an ideological battle.

    (Sanjay Pulipaka is an independent researcher on international politics and security issues. He was a Wrangler Pavate Fellow at the University of Cambridge and a former Fulbright Fellow in the US. Shreyas D Deshmukh is a research associate at the Delhi Policy Group. The views expressed here are personal.)



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