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How can the United States work to ensure that the Mutual Defense Treaty is ready to overcome the challenges set by the modern threat environment?
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With the former President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte failing to build meaningful relationships with China, analysts have called for the US to buttress their relationship with the Philippines and make the Mutual Defense Treaty fit for 21st century warfare.
The relationship has been touch and go for over half a decade. In 2019, the Chinese government lauded the increasingly cordial relationship between China and the Philippines, noting that: “Xi Jinping pointed out that China-Philippines relations have achieved the ‘trilogy’ of turnaround, consolidation and elevation over the past three years, and entered a new stage of development,” a release wrote.
A release that would have confirmed worries in the US military establishment, just years after relations between the US and Philippines chilled with Duterte calling President Barack Obama a “son of a whore”.
Fortunately, the relationship between the two nations is firming up after years of stagnation – with Duterte last year upholding the Visiting Forces Agreement after promising to cancel it, allowing continued US troop rotations in the Philippines.
The VFA is essential to upholding the Mutual Defense Treaty between the two nations, which dates back to 1951.
Indeed, the Philippines is designated by the US as a major non-NATO ally – no small feat. The title is shared by a select cadre of US allies including Australia and Japan, with some notable exceptions including India.
Following Bongbong Marcos’ assumption of the Presidency in June, the US wasted no time in firming relations – with US Secretary of State Antony Blinked reiterating the US’ commitment to the sovereignty of the Philippines at a meeting in Manila this week.
“An armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels and aircraft will invoke US mutual defense commitments under that treaty,” he reaffirmed.
“The Philippines is an irreplaceable friend, partner, and ally to the United States.”
With China’s presence in the South China Sea only set to intensify, analysts have called for the United States and the Philippines to make the Mutual Defense Treaty fit for the 21st century.
According to Gregory Winger, assistant professor at the University of Cincinnati, and Julio Amador III, president of the Foundation for the National Interest in War on the Rocks this week, both nations must use the post-Duterte era to broaden their security relationships.
“The Duterte presidency was the most challenging period in the US-Philippine alliance since the 1992 base closures,” the pair observed.
“He repeatedly threatened to abrogate essential agreements like the Visiting Forces Agreement and undermined key alliance activities.”
The analysts observed that despite Duterte’s Chinese appeasement, China’s aggression throughout the South China Sea nevertheless continued thus demonstrating the uncertainty of building geopolitical relationships with the Chinese Communist Party.
Though, the MDT survived challenges from the highest levels of Filipino government in no small part thanks to those in the military establishment who fought to maintain the decades-long relationship.
“Alliance supporters in both governments, and especially within the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Department of National Defense, rallied to support the partnership and sustain bilateral activities,” the pair argued.
However, with growing competition in the region, the Philippines will be forced to play a larger role – whether as a staging place in the event of an invasion of Taiwan or with any flashpoints in the South China Sea.
Thus, Winger and Amador note that the relationship must graduate from informal institutions – to a stronger and more formal defence partnership that will support both nations to overcome the military threats posed by a modern 21s century threat environment.
“However, the current alliance model has failed to build the political consensus and institutional capacity necessary to respond to strategic threats like China or actualise an integrated defense posture,” the pair observed.
However, the only means to ensure that the MDT is fit for purpose in the 21st century, is that both nations need to develop infrastructure capable of defending the Philippines from grey zone activities.
“Through its use of grey zone tactics like maritime militias and cyber operations that occur below the threshold of an ‘armed attack’, China has been able to reshape security conditions in the region in ways that actively skirt the Mutual Defense Treaty and undermine the ability of the alliance to respond.”
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