Brownlow's GIFs: It's nightmare week for all three Triangle teams

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

I come back from London only to discover that Coastal Chaos is upon us again! Everyone is bad/not terrible/not great/average! But it's clearly just the Coastal, right?

Oh.

Locally, of course, it's Nightmare Week here in the Triangle a few weeks ahead of Halloween. Why is that, you ask? Well, Chestnut Hills has been the scene of several nightmares for NC State football. Neither Duke nor North Carolina have beaten their respective opponents, Virginia and Virginia Tech, since the Obama administration. And Duke's last win over Virginia came before Duke's last national title in basketball! Bronco Mendenhall has been David Cutcliffe's nightmare fuel, that's for sure, and as mediocre as Justin Fuente's Virginia Tech team has looked in the last few years, it hasn't looked like that against North Carolina in awhile. Will this be the week that changes recent history for the Triangle teams? Or will it be more of the same?

Let's get to the GIFs!

NC STATE (4-2, 1-1) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (3-3, 1-2)

Time: 12 p.m.
TV: FOX Sports South

#ANALYSIS

NC State has gone into Chestnut Hill as the better team than Boston College plenty and still gone home with either an L or an anxiety-riddled W. They're the better team this time, and especially seeing as BC lost its starting quarterback Anthony Brown for the season. BC's offense has had to carry the load this season, and there are few more terrifying sentences in the English language than that one. But that job gets even more difficult now. NC State's defense has been asked to carry the load, and it will take the No. 3 rushing defense in yards per carry allowed into this game against a BC offense that will likely rely very heavily on fantastic running back A.J. Dillon.

NC State's offense, no matter the quarterback, hasn't exactly been explosive. But it's worth noting that while NC State hasn't faced a murderer's row of opposing defenses, their opponents have all been pretty solidly middle of the pack in terms of yards per play surrendered. Syracuse has been the worst so far and the Orange is 76th nationally; the best opponent NC State has faced is West Virginia at 50th. But do you know where Boston College ranks? Dead last in the ACC and 107th nationally, surrendering a generous 6.27 yards per play. Of course, even those numbers don't make a ton of sense: the Eagles have held Virginia Tech to 4.97 per play and Wake to 5.06, but allowed Kansas to put up 7.88 and Rutgers (gross) to put up 6.33 per play. Louisville two weeks ago, though, put up a whopping 8.5 per play. That's almost a first down every play!

NC State's defense has been asked to carry the load too often this season - this week, it's the offense's turn.

THIS GUY

NC State's rushing attack. I know, I know, I didn't just pick one person. A rushing attack is never just one person! But while all the attention has been on who will quarterback NC State, it's worth paying some attention to NC State's running game as a whole. NC State's rushing attack has not averaged more than 3.89 yards per rush against a Power 5 opponent so far this year and it has exactly one rushing touchdown. Individually, the backs have had some success. Zonavan "Bam" Knight (so fun to type, much less say!) has been pretty consistent, averaging at least four yards per carry in all but one game, but he has just one 100-yard game so far. Fellow freshman Jordan Houston has seen more action of late, including a career-high 13 carries against Syracuse for 54 yards. Since Ricky Person got hurt against Florida State, it's largely been a two-person job between those two. It's all lining up for NC State to get the ground game going this week, which should reignite the whole offense. But it'll start there.

HERE'S A GUY

Dennis Grosel. If you told me this dude was a middle reliever from the 1970s, I'd believe you based on name alone. But instead, he's the Boston College quarterback now! Which, kind of the same? Anyway, the former walk-on obviously will have big shoes to fill, but he has had a week off to try to ... grow his feet? So to speak? I'm sorry. And as we talked about how NC State's offense will be seeing the worst defense it's seen, the flip side will be true as well. Boston College, believe it or not, is averaging 6.3 yards per play - good for 36th nationally. The other FBS offenses NC State has seen rank 114th, 107th, 100th, 89th and 79th. Grossel finished the Louisville game with a stat line of 9 of 24 passing (37.5%) for 111 yards (4.6 per attempt), but he did have three touchdowns to just one pick and had to come in in a tough situation that he was undoubtedly not ready for yet. He also ran the ball six times for 47 yards (nearly eight yards per rush), so that's something NC State will have to watch for as well. But he's largely an unknown commodity. If he plays well, it's going to mean big trouble for NC State.

NARRATIVES

NC State Win: Dave Doeren, basically

NC State Loss:

Boston College Win:

Boston College Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 29-23. It won't be easy - it never is there! - but NC State seems to have too many advantages here.

NORTH CAROLINA (3-3, 2-1) AT VIRGINIA TECH (4-2, 1-2)

Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV: FOX Sports South

#ANALYSIS

North Carolina's streak of nine straight losses to in-state FBS teams has been well-documented, but here's the thing - if you toss Virginia Tech into that mix - a team that recruits pretty heavily in this state as well - that streak goes to 12. The last time North Carolina had success against in-state teams (and Virginia Tech) was four years ago when it won the Coastal. It has since lost three straight to Virginia Tech, Duke and NC State, with a loss each to Wake, App and ECU thrown in for good measure.

Is this really a meaningful streak as it pertains to the actual game? Probably not. But you tell me what method you'd like to use to figure out how either of these teams will play.

Carolina is coming off of a bye week. So that's good, right?

Oh.

We could diagnose this any way we want, but is there any way to meaningfully parse the results we've seen recently? I'll say this, though - North Carolina has two of its three wins away from home and the one loss came after a flat and bad start. The worst thing the Tar Heels can do in this situation? Do that again. Because the Hokies look to be a team that is at its best when things are going well and doesn't handle adversity quite as well. A lot of teams are like that, by the way, so it's not a slight. But Miami largely gifted Virginia Tech a 28-0 lead by virtue of its turnovers and miscues and the Hokies hung on to win, but barely. Virginia Tech looked great against Duke early, particularly defensively, but the moment the Blue Devils scored their first touchdown, it seemed like that was it.

The only constant with the Tar Heels is that they don't give up, no matter the opponent, and they can play up or down to almost anyone - and Virginia Tech is quite arguably in line with almost every opponent the Tar Heels have played so far. Which version of each team will show up? I don't know!

THIS GUY

Dazz Newsome. UNC's leading receiver is playing a bit of a home game this weekend, and at a place he's very familiar with, as Norm Wood from the Daily Press writes. Just as this game is personal for plenty of the Hokies, it'll surely be personal for him. He's been one of UNC's more reliable wide receivers this year, but he hasn't been immune to drops and he wasn't in UNC's last outing at Georgia Tech. He still finished with eight catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. During UNC's three-game losing streak, Newsome had 15 catches for 166 yards (11.1 per catch) but he's averaging 14.4 per catch on 14 catches in UNC's three wins. There's no telling which Virginia Tech defense UNC will see, but if it's the good one, it'd behoove the UNC offense to have Newsome play well.

HERE'S A GUY

Hendon Hooker. Speaking of connections between the two states, Virginia Tech's new starting quarterback is a Greensboro native. He's now started two games for the Hokies and has completed 26 of 47 passes (55%), throwing for seven touchdowns and no picks (the biggest thing by far for the Hokies' offense). He's also averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt, which is an improvement as well, but the no turnover thing is a big one. He's made the Virginia Tech offense more difficult to defend by virtue of the fact that he can use his legs as well; he has 119 yards on 31 attempts. Ryan Willis COULD scramble but didn't really scare anyone with it. Some of Hooker's effect on the offense has been a tad exaggerated, probably - he's been good, but the offense still put up 42 points on Miami largely by virtue of a ton of short fields after turnovers and didn't do much in the second half - but the Hokies did average over 7 yards a play against Rhode Island last week. It's just an FCS opponent, but it's still their best offensive performance since September 2018. Will it translate? We shall see, but it can't hurt, and his multi-dimensional ability makes him more difficult for UNC to defend.

NARRATIVES

Since I have no clue, I looked up "coastal" or "coast" and came up with these GIFs. You're welcome.

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

Virginia Tech Win:

Virginia Tech Loss:

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 27-20. I feel like it makes more sense for North Carolina to win this game based on what we've seen from both teams thus far, and so Virginia Tech will win it. Although maybe I should be reversing this and actually it would make more sense for Virginia Tech to win and so UNC should win? I have no idea.

DUKE (4-2, 2-1) AT VIRGINIA (4-2, 2-1)

Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Just like with North Carolina, Duke's past history with Virginia - one that has seen Duke lose four straight to the Cavaliers and put up some hideous offensive performances along the way. Duke would not be happy about an opposing player's injury and shouldn't be - no fans of college football should be - but Virginia cornerback Bryce Hall is out for the year, and he was the cause of a lot of those Duke nightmares. Three of his five career interceptions and five pass breakups came against Duke in three games. He's not playing, and he's a big piece of what Virginia does defensively.

Still, Virginia's defense is 14th nationally in yards per play allowed, better than the only other two teams Duke has played this year that have largely shut down the Duke offense (Alabama and Pitt). Virginia has done that in the past to some Duke offenses that have even managed to put up numbers against elite defenses. So none of that bodes very well for the Blue Devils.

Duke's defense is going to be called upon to win the day, and so is Virginia's on the flip side. Because both offenses are struggling - Duke is 101st nationally in yards per play and Virginia is 98th, including a ghastly performance against Miami. Virginia's offensive line is having a ton of issues, the Cavaliers can't run the ball and Bryce Perkins lacks a consistent threat to stretch the field. Other than that, how was the play, Robert Anae?

Pitt's offense was statistically worse, but the Pitt defense is aggressive and looks to force turnovers (and did). Virginia's would also like to force turnovers, of course, but that isn't quite its primary objective and the Cavaliers' opponents have turned it over just five times. Only five teams nationally have had their opponents turn it over fewer times. Duke lost six turnovers against Pitt alone and has lost 10 in their last three games against Virginia. So that'll be a big factor worth watching as well - can Duke hang on to the football long enough to let its defense do its job?

THIS GUY

Quentin Harris. The contrast is pretty stark for Duke's senior starter in terms of his games against quality defenses versus less quality defenses. It's only natural for that to be the case, but Harris' contrast is particularly startling. Against the three best pass defenses Duke has faced - Alabama, Pitt and Georgia Tech - Harris was 41 of 85 (48.2%) for 438 yards (5.2 per attempt), one touchdown and four picks. He also ran it 42 times in those games for 90 yards (2.1 per rush). Against the other three opponents, though? He's 74 of 96 (77.1%!!!) for 745 yards (7.8 per attempt!) and has 290 yards on 41 carries (7.1 per rush). He has more than 176 yards passing against two teams this year and three teams ever, and two of those opponents were FCS opponents. Virginia lost a significant piece of its defense in Hall, but Bronco Mendenhall still has a lot of talent to play with on that side of the ball and Harris' performance will have to be at the very least somewhere in the middle.

HERE'S A GUY

Bryce Perkins. It's not fair to him, but if this Virginia offense is going to do much of anything, it's going to be on him to make it happen. And do you want to know why it's not fair to him?

He's averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt (although he's completing 65.1% of his passes) and just 2.3 per rush. And Virginia has allowed 20 sacks, tied for 118th nationally. Perkins has nearly 30 more rushing attempts than the next-closest Cavalier and he's attempted at least 30 passes in all but two game this year - the comeback win over Old Dominion, oddly, and William & Mary. Perkins had a really solid game against Duke a year ago, completing 20 of 32 passes for 189 yards (62.5%) and a touchdown, adding 61 yards on 15 attempts and two more scores on the ground. Virginia's defense has done its part to give Duke fits, but Perkins will have to keep doing what he's had to do all year - namely, everything - against yet another solid defense.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

Virginia Win:

Virginia Loss:

PREDICTION

Virginia, 23-19. I've seen better Duke teams play against worse Virginia teams and lose, so!

Last week: N/A
Overall: 11-5 (4-2 ACC)